Sunday, November 18, 2007

Adding to my Wachovia position

As I wrote recently I purchased 35 shares of Wachovia. Since that purchase at $44.50 the shares have dipped as low as $38.05 on continued panic regarding the mortgage market deterioration. I decided to add 20 more shares to my position, and have reduced my cost basis now to $42.33.

As I noted before I am in some respects trying to pick the bottom of this hurtin' that has been put on financial stocks. The pundits on TV have said to stay away from bank stocks, as you could be "catching a falling knife".

So if I purchase while the stocks are on their way down am I catching a falling knife, am I early, or am I wrong? Early means there will be a bottom somewhere followed by a rebound, but I got in before the bottom. If you're two years early, are you one and a half years wrong?

I am 90% confident (though somewhat unqualified to make the judgment) that Wachovia will rebound at some point in the future when the mortgage scare is over. And based on my usual means of stock valuation (price / earnings, price / growth rate, profit margin) Wachovia is a cheap stock.

So the only question is how early am I?

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